Unfold TPN Reservoir Prospect Through Comprehensive Integrated Static-to-Dynamic Model History Matching and Uncertainty Quantification Analysis

Abstract

It is well-known that oil and gas field development is a high-risk venture. Uncertainties exists in many forms, from geological to dynamic model until uncertainties of economic parameters. It is critically important to properly quantify the uncertainty of such parameters and their effect on production forecasts and economic evaluations.
In order to technically and economically optimize these hydrocarbon reserves, a reliable numerical reservoir simulation models should be constructed to predict the reservoir performance and response under different production scenarios. Reservoir numerical simulation model can only be trusted by a good calibration with actual historical data. Traditional history matching is carried out through a trial and error approach of adjusting model parameters until a satisfactory match is obtained. The biggest challenge that faces the simulation engineer during this critical phase is that, there are more than one non-unique solutions that can be achieved by several combinations of reservoir variables, which require a time-consuming, expensive, and often frustrating procedure. As the solution, the assisted history matching technique and tool has now been arisen.
In this study, we have to carefully building a reliable model of a heterogenic reservoir with complex fault structure and production complexities. The production starts in 1956 with total 105 wells. The waterflood pilot starts in 2013 and it is expected that the field will continue to be a waterflood development. It is observed that the previous waterflood pilot in the field is highly inefficient. It is suspected that the injector wells are short-circuiting to the producer wells. Injection response was poor because of geological and production complexities. We now have the decision to continue the current development of the field, which is largely based on injector-producer pairs evaluation that are identified as an opportunity basis. A structured, pattern type development scenario is might also implemented to the field, which better mitigates the risks while at the same time deliver the oil faster.
The study used a numerical simulator to perform uncertainty analysis, waterflood analysis, and assisted history matching that can provide an outlook for the development scenario of this field.